What was really behind Hillary Clinton’s gaffe regarding assassination and the justification for dragging the primary campaign into June? Clearly it was a gaffe, and yet it echoes comments she made previously, on several occasions. However awful a gaffe this was, therefore, it seems to reflect an underlying theme—call it a tactic. What could that tactic plausibly be?
However ghoulish it would be for her to stay in the race waiting for her opponent to be assassinated, it would also be utterly irrational. Put aside the relative improbability of such a horrible event occurring before the Democratic Convention. There would have been no reason to fear that the party would not have turned to her in such an event even if she had conceded the nomination. She still would have had her supporters and delegates. The Clinton’s are too smart to not understand this.
Why, then, the obviously deliberate decision to refer to the 1968 primary election repeatedly, sometimes including the word “assassinated” and sometimes not? If the point was, as Senator Clinton has since claimed, merely to note that previous campaigns have stretched into the summer, citing that particular year seems an odd choice. After all, the Democratic Party lost in the general election of 1968—hardly an encouraging analogy. Moreover, the most singular event of that election year was Robert F. Kennedy’s assassination, as she very clearly understands. So raising that election year repeatedly does very little to support her case for extending the current primary campaign.
There is another possible motive for this theme. The Clinton’s have hardly been bashful about suggesting that, perhaps, America is just not ready to elect a black president. While they have not said this directly, they have certainly campaigned as if they believed this. The constant claim that Obama would not be electable hinges strongly on the racial animus displayed by Appalachian whites in the Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky primaries. Hence Senator Clinton’s reference to “hard-working Americans, white Americans . . .”
The belief that America is not ready for a black president would be a conveniently self-serving one for the Clintons; but it could be no less true for that. Many Obama supporters hope America has matured sufficiently, but fear that it may not have. In the black community especially, memories of racial violence are not old, and there has been a fear for Obama’s safety from the moment his presidential campaign began. Obama received a security detail earlier than any previous candidate, on the basis of received threats and perceived risks. The fear of an assassination gains credibility with every renewed expression of raw, virulent racism as the campaign unfolds. In recent weeks, interviews of voters in Kentucky and West Virginia have uncovered just such sentiments. A few days ago I heard a white Kentucky voter explaining that he voted for Clinton, that he could not vote for a black man, and that he thought Obama would be killed if elected. He quickly noted that he would not himself kill Obama; but he thought others would. This was days before Clinton’s recent assassination gaffe. It was chilling to hear.
The Clintons must know something of this—they are too politically savvy to not know. Bill Clinton, in particular, has too much history with the black community to not understand its anxiety. Perhaps, then, the Clintons decided to raise the election of 1968—with enough subtlety to avoid adverse consequences—as a means of raising unease about Obama’s candidacy. If the possibility and fear of an assassination could be fanned in the minds of super-delegates, perhaps they would be more inclined to support Clinton. If members of the Congressional Black Caucus were sufficiently nervous about Obama’s safety, perhaps they would take the “safe” route by supporting Clinton. The repeated references to 1968, and the assassinations of that year, if done subtly enough, might make just enough super-delegates uneasy to tip the election away from Obama.
Of course any such strategy would be playing with fire, to put it mildly, but with the odds stacked heavily against her and time running out, Clinton may have feared losing more than getting burned. So she has deployed this theme—repeatedly. Only in the most recent instance did she place her words badly enough to cause an explosion.